Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (Group) Corporation Limited (HKG:2411) Stock Rockets 25% As Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected

Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (Group) Corporation Limited (HKG:2411) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 25% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. Still, the 30-day jump doesn't change the fact that longer term shareholders have seen their stock decimated by the 59% share price drop in the last twelve months.

Although its price has surged higher, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (Group)'s P/S ratio of 0.2x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Consumer Retailing industry in Hong Kong is also close to 0.6x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

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Check out our latest analysis for Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (Group)

How Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (Group) Has Been Performing

Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (Group) hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining revenue compares poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth in their revenues on average. Perhaps the market is expecting its poor revenue performance to improve, keeping the P/S from dropping. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (Group)'s to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 9.8%. Unfortunately, that's brought it right back to where it started three years ago with revenue growth being virtually non-existent overall during that time. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing revenue over that time.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the dual analysts covering the company suggest revenue growth is heading into negative territory, declining 11% over the next year. That's not great when the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 9.7%.

With this in consideration, we think it doesn't make sense that Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (Group)'s P/S is closely matching its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company reject the analyst cohort's pessimism and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as these declining revenues are likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (Group)'s stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

Our check of Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (Group)'s analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking revenue isn't bringing down its P/S as much as we would have predicted. When we see a gloomy outlook like this, our immediate thoughts are that the share price is at risk of declining, negatively impacting P/S. If we consider the revenue outlook, the P/S seems to indicate that potential investors may be paying a premium for the stock.

The company's balance sheet is another key area for risk analysis. Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis for Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (Group) with six simple checks on some of these key factors.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.