Hans Group Holdings Limited's (HKG:554) 32% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Revenues

Hans Group Holdings Limited (HKG:554) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 32% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 52% in the last year.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Hans Group Holdings' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Oil and Gas industry in Hong Kong, where the median P/S ratio is around 0.7x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

View our latest analysis for Hans Group Holdings

How Has Hans Group Holdings Performed Recently?

With revenue growth that's exceedingly strong of late, Hans Group Holdings has been doing very well. It might be that many expect the strong revenue performance to wane, which has kept the share price, and thus the P/S ratio, from rising. Those who are bullish on Hans Group Holdings will be hoping that this isn't the case, so that they can pick up the stock at a lower valuation.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like Hans Group Holdings' is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew revenue by an impressive 61% last year. However, this wasn't enough as the latest three year period has seen the company endure a nasty 60% drop in revenue in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 2.2% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Hans Group Holdings' P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On Hans Group Holdings' P/S

Hans Group Holdings appears to be back in favour with a solid price jump bringing its P/S back in line with other companies in the industry Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We find it unexpected that Hans Group Holdings trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Hans Group Holdings you should be aware of.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.