Kinross Gold's Production Outlook Improves, Analyst Double Upgrades Stock

Ahead of their earnings release, BofA Securities analyst Lawson Winder upgraded Kinross Gold Corporation (NYSE:KGC) and downgraded Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE:GOLD).

Talking about market, the analyst says that Gold opened at $2,706/oz last week, rising to $2,746/oz on January 21, 2025, as the U.S. Dollar weakened.

It closed the week at $2,771/oz, up 2.5%, on President Trump’s remarks on a less aggressive tariff approach to China.

KGC: The analyst double-upgraded Kinross from Underperform to Buy and raised the price forecast from $9.25 to $12.75.

The analyst notes several concerns surrounding Kinross, such as shorter mine life, maintaining 2 million gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) of annual production, and unit costs, are being addressed.

Consequently, the analyst raised the 2026 GEO production forecast from 1.8 million to 2 million GEO and increased earnings per share (EPS) estimates from $0.64 to $0.78 for 2026.

Despite market concerns about potential corporate acquisitions, Kinross remains disciplined in this regard, adds the analyst.

Additionally, Winder sees potential for Kinross to boost capital returns in 2025 through a share buyback. Overall, the analyst says that the company is well-positioned for fourth-quarter results with potential catalysts in 2025.

GOLD: The analyst downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral and cut the price forecast from $21 to $18.

The analyst writes that as approaching fourth-quarter results, risks are rising, particularly regarding the shutdown of the Loulo-Gounkoto mine in Mali, and the struggling ramp-up of the Pueblo Viejo mine in the Dominican Republic.

In their 2025 model, Winder removed any production from the Loulo-Gounkoto mine due to its suspension amid a tax dispute with the Malian military government.

The analyst says that he sees two possible outcomes: the first, a less favorable tax and royalty agreement allowing continued operation; the second, a complete loss of operations if the government seizes control.

The analyst assumes the mine to restart in late 2025, ramping up to full production in 2026, but under less favorable terms for Barrick Gold.

Consequently, the analyst lowered 2025 estimates for EPS to $1.55 from $1.91 and 2026 EPS to $1.81 from $1.92.

Both Kinross and Barrick Gold will release their fourth-quarter results on Wednesday, February 12, 2025.

Price Action: KGC shares are down 0.89% at $10.60, while GOLD shares are down 1.18% at $15.94 at the last check Monday.

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