Revenue Miss: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited Fell 12% Short Of Analyst Revenue Estimates And Analysts Have Been Revising Their Models

Shareholders of Zijin Mining Group Company Limited (HKG:2899) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 16% to HK$17.18 following its latest quarterly results. Revenues were CN¥79b, 12% below analyst expectations, although losses didn't appear to worsen significantly, with a statutory per-share loss of CN¥1.20 being in line with what the analysts anticipated. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Zijin Mining Group after the latest results.

After the latest results, the 25 analysts covering Zijin Mining Group are now predicting revenues of CN¥353.3b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 15% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to grow 14% to CN¥1.55. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥355.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.52 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

See our latest analysis for Zijin Mining Group

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of HK$22.35, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Zijin Mining Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$24.40 and the most bearish at HK$18.95 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Zijin Mining Group is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Zijin Mining Group's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 20% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 14% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 5.7% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Zijin Mining Group is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Zijin Mining Group's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Zijin Mining Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Zijin Mining Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that Zijin Mining Group is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.