Analysts Have Been Trimming Their Modiv Industrial, Inc. (NYSE:MDV) Price Target After Its Latest Report

It's been a mediocre week for Modiv Industrial, Inc. (NYSE:MDV) shareholders, with the stock dropping 11% to US$14.62 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Revenues of US$12m arrived in line with expectations, although statutory losses per share were US$0.01, an impressive 88% smaller than what broker models predicted. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following last week's earnings report, Modiv Industrial's four analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$47.3m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 42% to US$0.04. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$47.5m and losses of US$0.33 per share in 2025. While the revenue estimates were largely unchanged, sentiment seems to have improved, with the analysts upgrading their numbers and making a very promising decrease in losses per share in particular.

Check out our latest analysis for Modiv Industrial

Even with the lower forecast losses, the analysts lowered their valuations, with the average price target falling 5.3% to US$18.00. It looks likethe analysts have become less optimistic about the overall business. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Modiv Industrial at US$19.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$17.50. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Modiv Industrial's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 8.1% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.3% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Modiv Industrial is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Modiv Industrial going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It might also be worth considering whether Modiv Industrial's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.