Earnings Beat: TWFG, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

It's been a good week for TWFG, Inc. (NASDAQ:TWFG) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 6.1% to US$33.99. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$54m were what the analysts expected, TWFG surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.09 per share, an impressive 28% above what was forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

After the latest results, the seven analysts covering TWFG are now predicting revenues of US$246.7m in 2025. If met, this would reflect a solid 17% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. TWFG is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.40 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$244.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.37 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on TWFG's earnings potential following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for TWFG

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$33.17, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic TWFG analyst has a price target of US$36.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$29.00. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that TWFG's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 23% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 18% over the past year. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 5.2% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect TWFG to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around TWFG's earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for TWFG going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of TWFG's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.