Should Investors Worry About UPS' Dividend Sustainability?

United Parcel Service UPS has long been a reliable dividend stock in the Zacks Transportation sector. With a current yield of 6.7% and a five-year dividend growth rate of 14%, its payouts are no doubt appealing. However, there are signs that future dividend growth may slow down. UPS’ elevated dividend payout ratio (the percentage of net income paid out as dividends) of 84% highlights the concern associated with its ability to maintain dividend payouts over the long term.

In February, United Parcel Service’s management announced a 0.6% hike in its quarterly dividend payout. As a result, UPS’ current quarterly dividend moved up 1 cent to $1.64 per share (annualized $6.56).

We remind investors that in the early 2020s, when UPS’ business was flourishing, driven by exponential e-commerce growth during the peak pandemic period, it resorted to making huge dividend payments. During the pandemic, UPS generated more than enough free cash flow to cover the elevated dividend payments. Free cash flow has been on a decline after touching the highs of $9 billion in 2022. Currently, United Parcel Service’s elevated dividend payout is hurting its operational flexibility, with free cash flow barely covering the dividend. At 2024-end, the generated free cash flow was $6.3 billion, not much above its dividend payments of $5.4 billion.

Taking a Look at Some Other Dividend-Growth Transportation Stocks

Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB, operating as Wabtec Corporation, has also been rewarding its shareholders with dividends. In February, Wabtec’s board of directors approved a dividend hike of 25%, thereby raising its quarterly cash dividend to 25 cents per share ($1 annualized) from 20 cents (80 cents annualized). 

Expeditors International of Washington EXPD is another prominent name in the transportation sector when it comes to rewarding shareholders through dividend payments. In May, Expeditors’ board of directors approved a dividend hike of 5.5%, raising its quarterly semi-annual cash dividend from 73 cents per share to 77 cents.

UPS’ Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

Shares of United Parcel Service have declined 21.5% in the past six months. Meanwhile, Expeditors and Wabtec have moved down 6.4% and 0.7%, respectively.

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From a valuation standpoint, UPS trades at a 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) of 13.14X. UPS is inexpensive compared with Expeditors and Wabtec, which have a P/E of 20.57X and 22.29X, respectively.

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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UPS’ 2025 and 2026 earnings has been revised downward over the past 60 days.

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UPS' Zacks Rank

UPS currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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