Aspen Aerogels, Inc.'s (NYSE:ASPN) 29% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Those holding Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (NYSE:ASPN) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 29% in the last thirty days, but it needs to keep going to repair the recent damage it has caused to investor portfolios. Still, the 30-day jump doesn't change the fact that longer term shareholders have seen their stock decimated by the 78% share price drop in the last twelve months.

Although its price has surged higher, it's still not a stretch to say that Aspen Aerogels' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.2x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Chemicals industry in the United States, seeing as it matches the P/S ratio of the wider industry. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

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View our latest analysis for Aspen Aerogels

How Has Aspen Aerogels Performed Recently?

With revenue growth that's superior to most other companies of late, Aspen Aerogels has been doing relatively well. Perhaps the market is expecting this level of performance to taper off, keeping the P/S from soaring. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

Aspen Aerogels' P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 52%. Pleasingly, revenue has also lifted 231% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been superb for the company.

Looking ahead now, revenue is anticipated to climb by 7.5% per annum during the coming three years according to the seven analysts following the company. With the industry predicted to deliver 28% growth per year, the company is positioned for a weaker revenue result.

With this information, we find it interesting that Aspen Aerogels is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as this level of revenue growth is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

What Does Aspen Aerogels' P/S Mean For Investors?

Aspen Aerogels' stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

When you consider that Aspen Aerogels' revenue growth estimates are fairly muted compared to the broader industry, it's easy to see why we consider it unexpected to be trading at its current P/S ratio. At present, we aren't confident in the P/S as the predicted future revenues aren't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. A positive change is needed in order to justify the current price-to-sales ratio.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Aspen Aerogels that you should be aware of.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.