Is C3.ai's Federal Business the Key to Unlocking Consistent Growth?

C3.ai, Inc.’s AI federal business is turning out to be one of the major growth engines amid the broader push to diversify its customer base.

In fourth-quarter fiscal 2025, C3.ai witnessed a major momentum in its government partnerships, headlined by a new $450 million ceiling awarded by the U.S. Air Force for the PANDA predictive maintenance platform. This system, already monitoring a wide range of aircraft, now enters a new expansion phase, reinforcing C3.ai’s embedded value in critical national defense infrastructure.

What makes the federal business so compelling is its multi-agency traction. C3.ai’s AI-powered solutions are now integrated across the Air Force, Navy, Marine Corps and Missile Defense Agency. From supply-chain visibility in fuel logistics to predictive analytics for aircraft readiness, C3.ai’s agentic AI and generative platforms are delivering real-time operational advantages. 

Importantly, this federal momentum aligns with the company's broader goal, building a stable, high-margin, recurring revenue base. While the commercial sector remains volatile, federal contracts tend to be long-term and resistant to cyclical downturns, exactly what C3.ai needs to balance its startup-style volatility elsewhere.

With $742.7 million in cash and a stable outlook on profitability, C3.ai is laying the foundation for long-term resilience. The question is not whether the federal business is a growth lever, it already is. The real focus now is scale. If C3.ai can deepen these relationships and expand AI solutions across more defense and intelligence domains, the federal sector may become the cornerstone of its growth strategy.

AI’s Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates

AI’s shares have gained 18.5% in the past three months compared with the industry’s growth of 5%. In the same time frame, other industry players, such as Asana, Inc. ASAN and Braze, Inc. BRZE, have seen their stocks gain 7% and decline 18.2%, respectively.

Price Performance

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Despite the recent gain, AI is priced at a discount relative to its industry. It has a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 7.14, which is well below the industry average. Meanwhile, Asana and Braze’s forward 12-month price-to-sales ratios are 4.14 and 4.18, respectively.

P/S (F12M)

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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 loss per share has narrowed to 36 cents (compared with a loss of 46 cents a year ago) in the past 30 days. Moreover, the consensus mark for fiscal 2027 loss per share has narrowed to 12 cents from a loss of 42 cents in the same time frame. Meanwhile, Asana and Braze’s earnings in fiscal 2026 are likely to witness an increase of 269.2% and 88.2%, respectively.

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The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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