Bear of the Day: Toyota Motor (TM)

Toyota Motor Company Overview

Zacks Rank #5 stock Toyota Motor (TM) is one of the leading automakers in the world in terms of revenue and production volume. Founded in 1973, the Japan-based Toyota Motor Corporation offers a broad product portfolio, with a full range of vehicles, including cars, minivans, and trucks. Though roughly half of Toyota’s revenue is still derived from internal combustion vehicles, the company has carved out a broad niche with its hybrid cars, which comprise nearly 48% of sales. Toyota is an international business with large footprints in the domestic Japanese market, North America, Europe, and Asia.

Toyota: Caught Between the US/Japan Trade War

US President Donald Trump has warned trading partners to make a deal with the United States before the July 9^th deadline or face steep ‘Liberation Day’ - Esque tariff hikes. While the US has announced trade deals with China, the UK, and Vietnam, trade tensions rhetoric between the US and China has escalated recently. Currently, Japan faces 10% tariffs from the US during a 90-day pause period. However, if Japan does not agree to a deal with the US, Trump has threatened tariff hikes to come to a more “fair” trade agreement. At the heart of Trump’s argument is his discontent with the automotive trade imbalance, where Japan sells thousands of cars in the United States and does not allow the US to sell cars to Japan. Unfortunately for Toyota investors, the company is stuck in the middle of an escalating trade war.

Tariffs Crush Toyota’s Profit Margins

Toyota is suffering a 20.8% contraction in year-over-year profit margins as material prices and US-imposed tariffs take their toll on the company.

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With the Trump tariff deadline looming, the potential for tariff-induced price hikes is a signficant uncertainty for the company.

Toyota Exbibits Relative Price Weakness

TM shares are rangebound, trading below the 200-day moving average, and are underperforming the S&P 500 Index significantly. In my experience, weakness begets weakness, and with TM down 15% over the past year, the stock is likely dead money for the moment.

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Bottom Line

While Toyota remains a global automotive powerhouse, the looming July 9^th tariff deadline and President Trump’s aggressive tariffs threaten Toyota’s profit margins, which are already contracting.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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