Okura Holdings Limited's (HKG:1655) 39% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Okura Holdings Limited (HKG:1655) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 39% share price jump in the last month. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 33% in the last twelve months.

Even after such a large jump in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Okura Holdings' P/S ratio of 0.3x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Hospitality industry in Hong Kong is also close to 0.7x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 15 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit.

See our latest analysis for Okura Holdings

How Has Okura Holdings Performed Recently?

We'd have to say that with no tangible growth over the last year, Okura Holdings' revenue has been unimpressive. It might be that many expect the uninspiring revenue performance to only match most other companies at best over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from rising. Those who are bullish on Okura Holdings will be hoping that this isn't the case, so that they can pick up the stock at a lower valuation.

Is There Some Revenue Growth Forecasted For Okura Holdings?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like Okura Holdings' is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.

If we review the last year of revenue, the company posted a result that saw barely any deviation from a year ago. Regardless, revenue has managed to lift by a handy 20% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the earlier period of growth. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.

Comparing the recent medium-term revenue trends against the industry's one-year growth forecast of 13% shows it's noticeably less attractive.

With this in mind, we find it intriguing that Okura Holdings' P/S is comparable to that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. They may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

What We Can Learn From Okura Holdings' P/S?

Okura Holdings' stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of Okura Holdings revealed its poor three-year revenue trends aren't resulting in a lower P/S as per our expectations, given they look worse than current industry outlook. When we see weak revenue with slower than industry growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, bringing the P/S back in line with expectations. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, the probability of a share price decline will become quite substantial, placing shareholders at risk.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 3 warning signs for Okura Holdings that we have uncovered.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.