US Stocks Likely To Open Lower As Trump's 20% Blanket Tariff Bombshell Weighs On Markets: Bitcoin-Linked Stocks MSTR, COIN Jump As BTC Touches $123,000

U.S. stock futures were lower on Monday after ending on a negative note on Friday. Futures of major benchmark indices were lower.

President Donald Trump, in a telephone interview with NBC News' “Meet the Press” moderator Kristen Welker, asserted that “The tariffs have been very well received.” He believes that if a 10% tariff can generate around $300 billion annually, a 20% rate could double that intake.

Meanwhile, the European Union was ready with a prepared list of tariffs worth 21 billion euros ($24.52 billion) on U.S. goods if the two sides fail to reach a trade deal, reported Reuters, highlighting Italy’s Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani‘s comments.

He also issued, latest threats to impose a 30% tariff on all imports from Mexico and the EU.

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) scaled fresh highs on Monday as the cryptocurrency hit a fresh high of $123,091.61 per coin.

The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.42% and the two-year bond was at 3.89%. The CME Group's FedWatch tool’s projections show markets pricing a 93.3% likelihood of the Federal Reserve keeping the current interest rates unchanged in its July meeting.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, were lower in premarket on Monday. The SPY was down 0.27% at $621.94, while the QQQ declined 0.27% to $552.73, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Cues From Last Session:

On Friday, while most sectors on the S&P 500 closed lower, notably financial, health care, and materials stocks recorded the steepest declines, energy and consumer discretionary stocks defied the broader market downturn, concluding the session higher.

This mixed performance occurred a day after the S&P 500 reached a new record high, ultimately leading U.S. stocks to settle lower.

The broader market reflected these losses over the past week, with the Dow Jones dropping 1% and the S&P by 0.3%.

Fueling market jitters, Trump signaled a more aggressive trade stance, announcing a 35% tariff on Canadian imports effective Aug. 1, alongside proposed blanket duties of 15% to 20% on most other trading partners.

In corporate news, WD-40 Co. (NASDAQ:WDFC) reported better-than-expected earnings for its third quarter, though its sales figures fell short of estimates.

Insights From Analysts:

Jim Cramer in an X post reflected his concern over tariffs linked to Trump’s policies.

Meanwhile, Ed Yardeni from Yardeni Research highlighted the surplus of just over $27 billion in June, reported by the U.S. Treasury Department, saying that Trump "must have loved the headline… ‘Treasury posts unexpected surplus in June as tariff receipts surge."

However, he warned that tariffs are essentially "a tax on U.S. importers," which can erode corporate profit margins and profits. While rebounding productivity growth might offer some offset, the potential impact on businesses remains a significant concern.

Adding about the market reaction to tariffs, Yardeni said, “The selloffs in the bond and stock markets back then forced Trump to deescalate his trade war. That's not happening now—not so far at least. This undoubtedly is emboldening Trump.”

Speculating on how the financial markets will respond this week to his latest escalation, Yardeni said that perhaps investors have learned that Trump's huffing and puffing is simply the way he negotiates trade deals.

“They are betting that it will work and result in lots of deals. They've also learned that Trump can change his mind often. So if some trade deals aren't coming together fast enough, he'll settle on a vague letter of understanding to work out a deal over time.”

The risk for the economy and investors is that Trump has concluded that if the financial markets aren't going to be vigilant about his trade war, then he can proceed with it unchecked, explained Yardeni. “If so, then TTT (Trump’s Tariff Turmoil) will last past the summer.”

Yardeni said in a LinkedIn post, “Then again, investors may agree with our current view that ‘this too shall pass’ by the end of the summer: The economy will remain resilient, and inflation will remain surprisingly moderate. It all adds up to a relatively normal seasonal pattern, with the stock market weak during the late summer through the fall followed by a year-end rally to 6500 in our scenario.”

See Also: How to Trade Futures

Upcoming Economic Data

Here’s what investors will keep an eye on this week:

• No significant data is scheduled to be released on Monday.
• On Tuesday, June’s headline and core consumer price index data, and the Empire State manufacturing survey will be released by 8:30 a.m. ET.
• Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will speak at 9:15 a.m., Fed Governor Michael Barr will speak at 12:45 p.m., Boston Fed President Susan Collins will speak at 2:45 p.m., and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will speak at 6:45 p.m. ET.
• On Wednesday, June’s headline and core producer price index data will be out by 8:30 a.m. ET.
• June’s industrial production and capacity utilization will be announced by 9:15 a.m. ET.
• Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr will speak again at 10:00 a.m., Fed’s beige book data will be out by 2:00 p.m., and New York Fed President John Williams will speak at 6:30 a.m. ET.
• On Thursday, the initial jobless claims data for the week ended July 5, June retail sales, import price index, and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey will all be out by 8:30 a.m. ET.
• May’s business inventories data and July’s home builder confidence index data will be out by 10:00 a.m. ET.
• Fed Governor Adriana Kugler will speak at 10:00 a.m., San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will speak at 12:45 p.m., Fed Governor Lisa Cook will speak at 1:30 p.m., and Fed Governor Christopher Waller will speak at 6:30 p.m. ET.
• On Friday, June’s housing starts and building permits data will be out by 8:30 a.m., and preliminary consumer sentiment data for July will be released by 10:00 a.m. ET.

Stocks In Focus:

• Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR) was up 3.41%, Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ:COIN) rose 1.76%, Riot Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:RIOT) advanced 3.86%, MARA Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:MARA) was 4.75% higher, along with all the other Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) exposed stocks as the cryptocurrency hit a fresh high of $123,091.61 on Monday.
• Datavault AI Inc. (NASDAQ:DVLT) jumped 15.64% in premarket on Monday after the company entered into a licensing deal with IBM for program subscriptions.
• BIT Mining Ltd. ADR (NYSE:BTCM) surged 40.40% after it announced strategic expansion into the Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) ecosystem, marking a significant shift in the company’s growth strategy. The cryptocurrency mining company plans to establish an SOL treasury of up to $300 million.
• Sequans Communications SA ADR (NYSE:SQNS) climbed 14.67% after closing a $384 million strategic investment to launch a Bitcoin treasury initiative last week. The financing consists of a $195 million PIPE (Private Investment in Public Equity) and $189 million in convertible debentures due July 7, 2028.
• Fastenal Co. (NASDAQ:FAST) was up 2.94% as analysts expect it to report earnings of 28 cents per share on revenue of $2.07 billion before the opening bell.
• FB Financial Corp. (NYSE:FBK) was unchanged as it is expected to report earnings after the closing bell. Analysts estimate earnings of 88 cents per share on revenue of $136.32.
• Simulations Plus Inc. (NASDAQ:SLP) was 5.07% higher as analysts expect it to report earnings of 7 cents per share on revenue of $20.88 million after the closing bell

Commodities, Gold, And Global Equity Markets:

Crude oil futures were trading higher in the early New York session by 0.72% to hover around $68.94 per barrel.

Gold Spot US Dollar rose 0.33% to hover around $3,367.09 per ounce. Its last record high stood at $3,500.33 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was higher by 0.09% at the 97.9400 level.

Asian markets ended on a mixed note on Monday, as India's S&P BSE Sensex, Japan's Nikkei 225, and Australia's ASX 200 indices fell. While China’s CSI 300, Hong Kong's Hang Seng, and South Korea's Kospi indices rose. European markets were mostly lower in early trade.

Read Next:

• Trump Wants Blanket Tariffs Of Up To 20% After Surprise Treasury Surplus In June: Ed Yardeni Says ‘Don’t Push Your Luck’

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