More Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For Niche-Tech Semiconductor Materials Limited's (HKG:8490) Shares After Tumbling 32%

Niche-Tech Semiconductor Materials Limited (HKG:8490) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough month, dropping 32% and undoing the prior period's positive performance. Longer-term, the stock has been solid despite a difficult 30 days, gaining 12% in the last year.

Even after such a large drop in price, given close to half the companies in Hong Kong have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 10x, you may still consider Niche-Tech Semiconductor Materials as a stock to avoid entirely with its 64.1x P/E ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

For example, consider that Niche-Tech Semiconductor Materials' financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

See our latest analysis for Niche-Tech Semiconductor Materials

Is There Enough Growth For Niche-Tech Semiconductor Materials?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Niche-Tech Semiconductor Materials would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 62% decrease to the company's bottom line. At least EPS has managed not to go completely backwards from three years ago in aggregate, thanks to the earlier period of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.

Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 23% shows it's noticeably less attractive on an annualised basis.

In light of this, it's alarming that Niche-Tech Semiconductor Materials' P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Even after such a strong price drop, Niche-Tech Semiconductor Materials' P/E still exceeds the rest of the market significantly. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our examination of Niche-Tech Semiconductor Materials revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 5 warning signs with Niche-Tech Semiconductor Materials (at least 3 which are a bit unpleasant), and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.