CHK Oil Limited (HKG:632) May Have Run Too Fast Too Soon With Recent 33% Price Plummet

The CHK Oil Limited (HKG:632) share price has softened a substantial 33% over the previous 30 days, handing back much of the gains the stock has made lately. The good news is that in the last year, the stock has shone bright like a diamond, gaining 214%.

Although its price has dipped substantially, given close to half the companies operating in Hong Kong's Oil and Gas industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 0.6x, you may still consider CHK Oil as a stock to potentially avoid with its 2x P/S ratio. However, the P/S might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

View our latest analysis for CHK Oil

How CHK Oil Has Been Performing

Recent times have been quite advantageous for CHK Oil as its revenue has been rising very briskly. The P/S ratio is probably high because investors think this strong revenue growth will be enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

Is There Enough Revenue Growth Forecasted For CHK Oil?

CHK Oil's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the industry.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, we see the company's revenues grew exponentially. Despite this strong recent growth, it's still struggling to catch up as its three-year revenue frustratingly shrank by 88% overall. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 1.4% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

With this information, we find it concerning that CHK Oil is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

Despite the recent share price weakness, CHK Oil's P/S remains higher than most other companies in the industry. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that CHK Oil currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. With a revenue decline on investors' minds, the likelihood of a souring sentiment is quite high which could send the P/S back in line with what we'd expect. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for CHK Oil you should be aware of, and 1 of them can't be ignored.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.