Central Development Holdings Limited's (HKG:475) Shares Climb 37% But Its Business Is Yet to Catch Up

Central Development Holdings Limited (HKG:475) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 37% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 11% over that time.

Following the firm bounce in price, you could be forgiven for thinking Central Development Holdings is a stock not worth researching with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 1.3x, considering almost half the companies in Hong Kong's Luxury industry have P/S ratios below 0.6x. However, the P/S might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

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View our latest analysis for Central Development Holdings

How Has Central Development Holdings Performed Recently?

For example, consider that Central Development Holdings' financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

Is There Enough Revenue Growth Forecasted For Central Development Holdings?

Central Development Holdings' P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 9.1% decrease to the company's top line. Even so, admirably revenue has lifted 64% in aggregate from three years ago, notwithstanding the last 12 months. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would definitely welcome the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 28% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker, based on recent medium-term annualised revenue results.

With this information, we find it concerning that Central Development Holdings is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

Central Development Holdings' P/S is on the rise since its shares have risen strongly. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our examination of Central Development Holdings revealed its poor three-year revenue trends aren't detracting from the P/S as much as we though, given they look worse than current industry expectations. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these the share price as being reasonable.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Central Development Holdings (at least 1 which can't be ignored), and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.