Optimistic Investors Push Guan Chao Holdings Limited (HKG:1872) Shares Up 70% But Growth Is Lacking

Guan Chao Holdings Limited (HKG:1872) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 70% gain in the last month alone. The annual gain comes to 226% following the latest surge, making investors sit up and take notice.

After such a large jump in price, when almost half of the companies in Hong Kong's Specialty Retail industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 0.5x, you may consider Guan Chao Holdings as a stock probably not worth researching with its 1.4x P/S ratio. However, the P/S might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

Our free stock report includes 3 warning signs investors should be aware of before investing in Guan Chao Holdings. Read for free now.

See our latest analysis for Guan Chao Holdings

What Does Guan Chao Holdings' P/S Mean For Shareholders?

The recent revenue growth at Guan Chao Holdings would have to be considered satisfactory if not spectacular. Perhaps the market believes the recent revenue performance is strong enough to outperform the industry, which has inflated the P/S ratio. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Guan Chao Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Enough Revenue Growth Forecasted For Guan Chao Holdings?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as high as Guan Chao Holdings' is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the industry.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 5.5%. Ultimately though, it couldn't turn around the poor performance of the prior period, with revenue shrinking 23% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 41% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Guan Chao Holdings' P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Bottom Line On Guan Chao Holdings' P/S

Guan Chao Holdings' P/S is on the rise since its shares have risen strongly. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

We've established that Guan Chao Holdings currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. With a revenue decline on investors' minds, the likelihood of a souring sentiment is quite high which could send the P/S back in line with what we'd expect. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Guan Chao Holdings you should be aware of.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.