Kinergy Corporation Ltd.'s (HKG:3302) Shares Climb 26% But Its Business Is Yet to Catch Up

Kinergy Corporation Ltd. (HKG:3302) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 26% after a shaky period beforehand. Still, the 30-day jump doesn't change the fact that longer term shareholders have seen their stock decimated by the 57% share price drop in the last twelve months.

Even after such a large jump in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Kinergy's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.2x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Electronic industry in Hong Kong, where the median P/S ratio is around 0.3x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

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View our latest analysis for Kinergy

How Has Kinergy Performed Recently?

The recent revenue growth at Kinergy would have to be considered satisfactory if not spectacular. Perhaps the expectation moving forward is that the revenue growth will track in line with the wider industry for the near term, which has kept the P/S subdued. If not, then at least existing shareholders probably aren't too pessimistic about the future direction of the share price.

Is There Some Revenue Growth Forecasted For Kinergy?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like Kinergy's is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company managed to grow revenues by a handy 7.1% last year. Ultimately though, it couldn't turn around the poor performance of the prior period, with revenue shrinking 41% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 17% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Kinergy's P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Kinergy appears to be back in favour with a solid price jump bringing its P/S back in line with other companies in the industry We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We find it unexpected that Kinergy trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. Even though it matches the industry, we're uncomfortable with the current P/S ratio, as this dismal revenue performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for Kinergy (2 are potentially serious!) that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.