Optimistic Investors Push Matrix Holdings Limited (HKG:1005) Shares Up 43% But Growth Is Lacking

Matrix Holdings Limited (HKG:1005) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 43% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Longer-term shareholders would be thankful for the recovery in the share price since it's now virtually flat for the year after the recent bounce.

Following the firm bounce in price, given close to half the companies operating in Hong Kong's Leisure industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 0.7x, you may consider Matrix Holdings as a stock to potentially avoid with its 1.3x P/S ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

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Check out our latest analysis for Matrix Holdings

What Does Matrix Holdings' Recent Performance Look Like?

For example, consider that Matrix Holdings' financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

How Is Matrix Holdings' Revenue Growth Trending?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as high as Matrix Holdings' is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the industry.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 36%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 58% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 7.5% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

In light of this, it's alarming that Matrix Holdings' P/S sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

What Does Matrix Holdings' P/S Mean For Investors?

Matrix Holdings shares have taken a big step in a northerly direction, but its P/S is elevated as a result. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our examination of Matrix Holdings revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

Plus, you should also learn about these 4 warning signs we've spotted with Matrix Holdings (including 3 which are a bit unpleasant).

If you're unsure about the strength of Matrix Holdings' business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.