Dowway Holdings Limited's (HKG:8403) Shares Climb 29% But Its Business Is Yet to Catch Up

Dowway Holdings Limited (HKG:8403) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 29% gain in the last month alone. The last month tops off a massive increase of 122% in the last year.

After such a large jump in price, given close to half the companies operating in Hong Kong's Media industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 0.9x, you may consider Dowway Holdings as a stock to potentially avoid with its 1.6x P/S ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

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Check out our latest analysis for Dowway Holdings

How Dowway Holdings Has Been Performing

Revenue has risen firmly for Dowway Holdings recently, which is pleasing to see. One possibility is that the P/S ratio is high because investors think this respectable revenue growth will be enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Dowway Holdings would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the industry.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 19%. Despite this strong recent growth, it's still struggling to catch up as its three-year revenue frustratingly shrank by 18% overall. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenues over that time.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 8.9% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

With this information, we find it concerning that Dowway Holdings is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What Does Dowway Holdings' P/S Mean For Investors?

Dowway Holdings' P/S is on the rise since its shares have risen strongly. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

We've established that Dowway Holdings currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see revenue heading backwards and underperforming the industry forecasts, we feel the possibility of the share price declining is very real, bringing the P/S back into the realm of reasonability. Should recent medium-term revenue trends persist, it would pose a significant risk to existing shareholders' investments and prospective investors will have a hard time accepting the current value of the stock.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 4 warning signs for Dowway Holdings (2 are concerning!) that you should be aware of.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.