There's Reason For Concern Over Sino Gas Holdings Group Limited's (HKG:1759) Massive 39% Price Jump

Despite an already strong run, Sino Gas Holdings Group Limited (HKG:1759) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 39% in the last thirty days. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 54%.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Sino Gas Holdings Group's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.1x is worth a mention when the median P/S in Hong Kong's Specialty Retail industry is similar at about 0.5x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

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Check out our latest analysis for Sino Gas Holdings Group

How Sino Gas Holdings Group Has Been Performing

Sino Gas Holdings Group has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing revenue at a solid pace. Perhaps the market is expecting future revenue performance to only keep up with the broader industry, which has keeping the P/S in line with expectations. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Sino Gas Holdings Group's to be considered reasonable.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 16%. Still, revenue has fallen 14% in total from three years ago, which is quite disappointing. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 51% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

With this information, we find it concerning that Sino Gas Holdings Group is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

Its shares have lifted substantially and now Sino Gas Holdings Group's P/S is back within range of the industry median. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We find it unexpected that Sino Gas Holdings Group trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. Even though it matches the industry, we're uncomfortable with the current P/S ratio, as this dismal revenue performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

Having said that, be aware Sino Gas Holdings Group is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 3 of those are a bit concerning.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.