Some Confidence Is Lacking In Geotech Holdings Ltd. (HKG:1707) As Shares Slide 27%

Geotech Holdings Ltd. (HKG:1707) shares have retraced a considerable 27% in the last month, reversing a fair amount of their solid recent performance. Longer-term, the stock has been solid despite a difficult 30 days, gaining 22% in the last year.

Even after such a large drop in price, given around half the companies in Hong Kong's Construction industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 0.3x, you may still consider Geotech Holdings as a stock to avoid entirely with its 2.3x P/S ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/S.

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See our latest analysis for Geotech Holdings

What Does Geotech Holdings' P/S Mean For Shareholders?

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Geotech Holdings over the last year, which is not ideal at all. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Geotech Holdings would need to produce outstanding growth that's well in excess of the industry.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 40%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 79% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 16% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we find it concerning that Geotech Holdings is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

Geotech Holdings' shares may have suffered, but its P/S remains high. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

Our examination of Geotech Holdings revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. With a revenue decline on investors' minds, the likelihood of a souring sentiment is quite high which could send the P/S back in line with what we'd expect. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

Having said that, be aware Geotech Holdings is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis, you should know about.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.