Improved Revenues Required Before Universal Health International Group Holding Limited (HKG:2211) Stock's 36% Jump Looks Justified

Universal Health International Group Holding Limited (HKG:2211) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 36% after a shaky period beforehand. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 66% in the last year.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, it would still be understandable if you think Universal Health International Group Holding is a stock with good investment prospects with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 0.1x, considering almost half the companies in Hong Kong's Healthcare industry have P/S ratios above 0.9x. However, the P/S might be low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

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Check out our latest analysis for Universal Health International Group Holding

How Has Universal Health International Group Holding Performed Recently?

For example, consider that Universal Health International Group Holding's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. Perhaps the market believes the recent revenue performance isn't good enough to keep up the industry, causing the P/S ratio to suffer. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The Low P/S Ratio?

Universal Health International Group Holding's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver limited growth, and importantly, perform worse than the industry.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 14%. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 23% overall. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 8.1% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

With this information, we are not surprised that Universal Health International Group Holding is trading at a P/S lower than the industry. However, we think shrinking revenues are unlikely to lead to a stable P/S over the longer term, which could set up shareholders for future disappointment. There's potential for the P/S to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its top-line growth.

The Bottom Line On Universal Health International Group Holding's P/S

Despite Universal Health International Group Holding's share price climbing recently, its P/S still lags most other companies. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

As we suspected, our examination of Universal Health International Group Holding revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term is contributing to its low P/S, given the industry is set to grow. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in revenue isn't great enough to justify a higher P/S ratio. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it's hard to see the share price moving strongly in either direction in the near future under these circumstances.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Universal Health International Group Holding (2 make us uncomfortable) you should be aware of.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.