Optimistic Investors Push Cirtek Holdings Limited (HKG:1433) Shares Up 26% But Growth Is Lacking

The Cirtek Holdings Limited (HKG:1433) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 26%. The annual gain comes to 153% following the latest surge, making investors sit up and take notice.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Cirtek Holdings' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.4x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Luxury industry in Hong Kong, where the median P/S ratio is around 0.6x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

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Check out our latest analysis for Cirtek Holdings

What Does Cirtek Holdings' P/S Mean For Shareholders?

With revenue growth that's exceedingly strong of late, Cirtek Holdings has been doing very well. The P/S is probably moderate because investors think this strong revenue growth might not be enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. If that doesn't eventuate, then existing shareholders have reason to be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

Is There Some Revenue Growth Forecasted For Cirtek Holdings?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Cirtek Holdings would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 48%. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 52% overall rise in revenue, aided by its short-term performance. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been superb for the company.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 36% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker, based on recent medium-term annualised revenue results.

With this information, we find it interesting that Cirtek Holdings is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. They may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Bottom Line On Cirtek Holdings' P/S

Its shares have lifted substantially and now Cirtek Holdings' P/S is back within range of the industry median. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that Cirtek Holdings' average P/S is a bit surprising since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider industry forecast. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/S as this revenue performance isn't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, the probability of a share price decline will become quite substantial, placing shareholders at risk.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Cirtek Holdings that you need to be mindful of.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.