The Boston Beer Company, Inc. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Shareholders of The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (NYSE:SAM) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 12% to US$215 following its latest quarterly results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$588m were what the analysts expected, Boston Beer Company surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$5.45 per share, an impressive 36% above what was forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the 15 analysts covering Boston Beer Company provided consensus estimates of US$1.98b revenue in 2025, which would reflect a noticeable 3.4% decline over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 26% to US$9.38. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$2.04b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$9.18 in 2025. If anything, the analysts look to have become slightly more optimistic overall; while they decreased their revenue forecasts, EPS predictions increased and ultimately earnings are more important.

See our latest analysis for Boston Beer Company

There's been no real change to the average price target of US$244, with the lower revenue and higher earnings forecasts not expected to meaningfully impact the company's valuation over a longer timeframe. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Boston Beer Company analyst has a price target of US$326 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$187. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 6.7% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 3.1% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.7% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Boston Beer Company is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Boston Beer Company's earnings potential next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Boston Beer Company going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Boston Beer Company that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.