Exxon, Chevron Could Be Wall Street's Best-Kept Secrets This Quarter

While market focus is fixed on Big Tech earnings and the Federal Reserve meeting, the real surprise this week could emerge from the oil sector, as ExxonMobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX) gear up to report results on Friday morning.

• XOM stock's volume momentum accelerates ahead of earnings. Track it now here.

Despite a low-key performance in 2025, oil majors are quietly building momentum. Crude prices have risen more than 5% this month, with most of the gains coming in just the last three sessions, pushing WTI light crude back toward the psychologically important $70 mark.

More telling, earnings forecasts for energy companies are surging. According to Yardeni Research, the Energy sector saw the strongest positive EPS revisions among all 11 S&P 500 sectors during the week of July 14.

Since June 30, energy EPS estimates have climbed 4.5%, the best sectoral performance by this measure.

Chevron, Exxon Earnings Upgrades Show The Shift

Over the last two weeks, Chevron's earnings forecast for the fourth quarter of 2025 has been revised up from $1.84 to $2.01, while the first quarter of 2026 has jumped from $2.05 to $2.41.

Exxon's fourth-quarter 2025 EPS was raised from $1.54 to $1.64, and first-quarter 2026 moved from $1.72 to $1.81.

Goldman Sachs analyst Neil Mehta remains bullish on both names.

For Exxon, Mehta said the company's upstream strength—especially in the Permian Basin, Guyana, and liquefied natural gas—positions it well.

"We highlight management’s expectation for 10 major project start-ups… to drive over ~$3 billion of potential earnings in 2026," he said.

Mehta also pointed to Exxon's lean cost structure and stable capital returns: "We view XOM as well-positioned to maintain capital returns in a lower commodity price environment given its robust balance sheet."

On Chevron, Goldman sees a series of catalysts including "major growth projects in Kazakhstan, the Gulf of America, and the Permian Basin," a 5% dividend yield, and improving cash flows.

Mehta also flagged Chevron's recent $53 billion all-stock acquisition of Hess Corp. as a long-term growth lever, expected to drive $1 billion in annual cost synergies.

Despite improved fundamentals, both oil giants remain under the radar. Shares of Exxon are up just 3.4% in 2025, while Chevron has gained 6.7%—both trailing the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY)'s 8% advance.

With Wall Street laser-focused on Big Tech's earnings slate, Friday's oil earnings could be the quarter's best-kept secret.

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