Betting On The Trade War: 3 Stocks That Could Win If Global Tensions Intensify

A new trade war is bubbling under the surface of global markets. With President Donald Trump threatening 100% tariffs on foreign-made semiconductors, investors are shifting focus to stocks that don't just survive geopolitical heat—they thrive in it. However, with much of the market already driven by AI hype, where can investors still find genuine upside?

• Track the semiconductors sector performance here.

Here are three stocks with a unique advantage in a more fractured, protectionist world—and more importantly, where the entry point still makes sense. These are ON Semiconductor Corp (NASDAQ:ON), Lockheed Martin Corp (NYSE:LMT) and Palantir Technologies Inc (NYSE:PLTR).

Read Also: Palantir Won Pentagon—Next Target: Fortune 500

ON Semiconductor

ON Semiconductor is tailor-made for this environment. The company operates domestic fabs and serves fast-growing end markets like electric vehicles and industrial automation—two sectors likely to benefit from reshoring and supply chain localization.

As tariff rhetoric heats up, ON's U.S. footprint becomes a competitive edge. Despite that, the stock remains reasonably valued. After peaking in late 2023 and undergoing a healthy correction, it now trades at around 20 times forward earnings (per Benzinga Pro data)—noticeably cheaper than peers like Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) (at 40x) or Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ:AVGO) (at 37x).

With analysts forecasting further upside and political winds blowing in its favor, ON offers a rare combination in this market: a tariff-proof business model and an attractive entry point. For investors seeking exposure to domestic manufacturing and chips without paying AI multiples, this one stands out.

Lockheed Martin

Lockheed Martin doesn't need a trade war to perform—but it certainly doesn't hurt. As global tensions mount, defense spending tends to rise, and Lockheed is a key beneficiary. The company's deep ties to U.S. and allied governments give it consistent cash flow and long-term contracts that are resilient to macro shocks.

Currently trading at around 18 times forward earnings with a 3% dividend yield (Benzinga Pro data), the stock is priced fairly by historical standards—offering neither a bargain nor frothy risk. But for investors seeking a defensive play with built-in policy support, Lockheed offers steady upside, solid income, and peace of mind in uncertain times. It may not shoot the lights out, but it's built to endure and compound.

Palantir

Palantir is the wildcard—and the most polarizing name on this list. The company sits at the intersection of artificial intelligence, national security, and government data infrastructure. As tensions rise and governments double down on surveillance and defense-tech spending, Palantir's business looks more relevant than ever.

The problem? The stock has already surged 140% year to date and now trades at a nosebleed valuation of around 278x forward earnings. That kind of price tag leaves little room for error, and investors entering now are betting on continued momentum—and on a potential escalation of the trade war to unlock more government contracts.

If you’re bullish on geopolitical chaos and AI-fueled state tech, Palantir could have more juice left. But it’s not for the faint of heart.

The new trade war may not look like 2018, but it's just as investable. ON Semiconductor offers strong fundamentals with room to run, Lockheed provides reliable macro insulation, and Palantir is a high-risk, high-reward flyer for those betting on tech-powered defense.

In a market driven by policy as much as profits, these names aren't just resilient—they're relevant.

Read Next:

• Palantir Has A Thing For Election Years — And Investors Are Voting ‘Yes’ Again

Image: Shutterstock