Further Upside For Top Spring International Holdings Limited (HKG:3688) Shares Could Introduce Price Risks After 29% Bounce

Top Spring International Holdings Limited (HKG:3688) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 29% after a shaky period beforehand. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 48%.

Although its price has surged higher, it's still not a stretch to say that Top Spring International Holdings' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.4x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Real Estate industry in Hong Kong, where the median P/S ratio is around 0.7x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

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View our latest analysis for Top Spring International Holdings

How Top Spring International Holdings Has Been Performing

Recent times have been quite advantageous for Top Spring International Holdings as its revenue has been rising very briskly. It might be that many expect the strong revenue performance to wane, which has kept the share price, and thus the P/S ratio, from rising. Those who are bullish on Top Spring International Holdings will be hoping that this isn't the case, so that they can pick up the stock at a lower valuation.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like Top Spring International Holdings' is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 43% gain to the company's top line. The strong recent performance means it was also able to grow revenue by 114% in total over the last three years. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

This is in contrast to the rest of the industry, which is expected to grow by 5.3% over the next year, materially lower than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

With this information, we find it interesting that Top Spring International Holdings is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. It may be that most investors are not convinced the company can maintain its recent growth rates.

What Does Top Spring International Holdings' P/S Mean For Investors?

Top Spring International Holdings' stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

To our surprise, Top Spring International Holdings revealed its three-year revenue trends aren't contributing to its P/S as much as we would have predicted, given they look better than current industry expectations. It'd be fair to assume that potential risks the company faces could be the contributing factor to the lower than expected P/S. It appears some are indeed anticipating revenue instability, because the persistence of these recent medium-term conditions would normally provide a boost to the share price.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for Top Spring International Holdings (2 are a bit concerning!) that you need to be mindful of.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.