Earnings Update: Here's Why Analysts Just Lifted Their Genius Sports Limited (NYSE:GENI) Price Target To US$14.35

Investors in Genius Sports Limited (NYSE:GENI) had a good week, as its shares rose 6.1% to close at US$12.39 following the release of its quarterly results. It was a pretty bad result overall; while revenues were in line with expectations at US$119m, statutory losses exploded to US$0.21 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Following the latest results, Genius Sports' 16 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$645.1m in 2025. This would be a meaningful 16% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 40% to US$0.20. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$620.8m and losses of US$0.016 per share in 2025. While this year's revenue estimates increased, there was also a considerable increase to loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

View our latest analysis for Genius Sports

The average price target rose 9.9% to US$14.35, even thoughthe analysts have been updating their forecasts to show higher revenues and higher forecast losses. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Genius Sports, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$16.00 and the most bearish at US$11.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that Genius Sports' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 33% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 25% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 10.0% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Genius Sports is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Genius Sports going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We also provide an overview of the Genius Sports Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.