Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (NYSE:ASPN) Analysts Are Pretty Bullish On The Stock After Recent Results

Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (NYSE:ASPN) just released its quarterly report and things are looking bullish. It looks like a positive result overall, with revenues of US$78m beating forecasts by 7.6%. Statutory losses of US$0.11 per share were 7.6% smaller than the analysts expected, likely helped along by the higher revenues. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the seven analysts covering Aspen Aerogels provided consensus estimates of US$300.5m revenue in 2025, which would reflect a concerning 24% decline over the past 12 months. Losses are expected to hold steady at around US$3.83. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$292.0m and US$3.92 per share in losses. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for both revenues and losses per share.

Check out our latest analysis for Aspen Aerogels

It will come as no surprise to learn thatthe analysts have increased their price target for Aspen Aerogels 6.4% to US$9.75on the back of these upgrades. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Aspen Aerogels analyst has a price target of US$14.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$7.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 43% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 33% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.5% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Aspen Aerogels is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Aspen Aerogels. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Aspen Aerogels analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.