Shareholders In GCL Global Holdings (NASDAQ:GCL) Should Look Beyond Earnings For The Full Story

Even though GCL Global Holdings Ltd (NASDAQ:GCL) posted strong earnings recently, the stock hasn't reacted in a large way. We think that investors might be worried about the foundations the earnings are built on.

We've found 21 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.

Examining Cashflow Against GCL Global Holdings' Earnings

Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

Over the twelve months to March 2025, GCL Global Holdings recorded an accrual ratio of 0.60. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. And indeed, during the period the company didn't produce any free cash flow whatsoever. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of US$10m despite its profit of US$5.59m, mentioned above. We saw that FCF was US$1.0m a year ago though, so GCL Global Holdings has at least been able to generate positive FCF in the past. However, that's not the end of the story. We must also consider the impact of unusual items on statutory profit (and thus the accrual ratio), as well as note the ramifications of the company issuing new shares. The good news for shareholders is that GCL Global Holdings' accrual ratio was much better last year, so this year's poor reading might simply be a case of a short term mismatch between profit and FCF. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.

View our latest analysis for GCL Global Holdings

Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of GCL Global Holdings.

To understand the value of a company's earnings growth, it is imperative to consider any dilution of shareholders' interests. GCL Global Holdings expanded the number of shares on issue by 1,752% over the last year. That means its earnings are split among a greater number of shares. To talk about net income, without noticing earnings per share, is to be distracted by the big numbers while ignoring the smaller numbers that talk to per share value. Check out GCL Global Holdings' historical EPS growth by clicking on this link.

How Is Dilution Impacting GCL Global Holdings' Earnings Per Share (EPS)?

Unfortunately, we don't have any visibility into its profits three years back, because we lack the data. And even focusing only on the last twelve months, we don't have a meaningful growth rate because it made a loss a year ago, too. What we do know is that while it's great to see a profit over the last twelve months, that profit would have been better, on a per share basis, if the company hadn't needed to issue shares. So you can see that the dilution has had a fairly significant impact on shareholders.

In the long term, if GCL Global Holdings' earnings per share can increase, then the share price should too. But on the other hand, we'd be far less excited to learn profit (but not EPS) was improving. For the ordinary retail shareholder, EPS is a great measure to check your hypothetical "share" of the company's profit.

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that GCL Global Holdings' profit was boosted by unusual items worth US$4.7m in the last twelve months. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. We ran the numbers on most publicly listed companies worldwide, and it's very common for unusual items to be once-off in nature. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. GCL Global Holdings had a rather significant contribution from unusual items relative to its profit to March 2025. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit a poor guide to underlying earnings power.

Our Take On GCL Global Holdings' Profit Performance

GCL Global Holdings didn't back up its earnings with free cashflow, but this isn't too surprising given profits were inflated by unusual items. The dilution means the results are weaker when viewed from a per-share perspective. For all the reasons mentioned above, we think that, at a glance, GCL Global Holdings' statutory profits could be considered to be low quality, because they are likely to give investors an overly positive impression of the company. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. To help with this, we've discovered 3 warning signs (2 are significant!) that you ought to be aware of before buying any shares in GCL Global Holdings.

Our examination of GCL Global Holdings has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.