If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for? Typically, we'll want to notice a trend of growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and alongside that, an expanding base of capital employed. Put simply, these types of businesses are compounding machines, meaning they are continually reinvesting their earnings at ever-higher rates of return. Although, when we looked at SEM Holdings (HKG:9929), it didn't seem to tick all of these boxes.
If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. To calculate this metric for SEM Holdings, this is the formula:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.01 = HK$2.3m ÷ (HK$258m - HK$40m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).
Therefore, SEM Holdings has an ROCE of 1.0%. Ultimately, that's a low return and it under-performs the Construction industry average of 5.5%.
Check out our latest analysis for SEM Holdings
Historical performance is a great place to start when researching a stock so above you can see the gauge for SEM Holdings' ROCE against it's prior returns. If you're interested in investigating SEM Holdings' past further, check out this free graph covering SEM Holdings' past earnings, revenue and cash flow.
When we looked at the ROCE trend at SEM Holdings, we didn't gain much confidence. Over the last five years, returns on capital have decreased to 1.0% from 29% five years ago. And considering revenue has dropped while employing more capital, we'd be cautious. This could mean that the business is losing its competitive advantage or market share, because while more money is being put into ventures, it's actually producing a lower return - "less bang for their buck" per se.
On a related note, SEM Holdings has decreased its current liabilities to 15% of total assets. That could partly explain why the ROCE has dropped. Effectively this means their suppliers or short-term creditors are funding less of the business, which reduces some elements of risk. Since the business is basically funding more of its operations with it's own money, you could argue this has made the business less efficient at generating ROCE.
From the above analysis, we find it rather worrisome that returns on capital and sales for SEM Holdings have fallen, meanwhile the business is employing more capital than it was five years ago. Long term shareholders who've owned the stock over the last five years have experienced a 27% depreciation in their investment, so it appears the market might not like these trends either. That being the case, unless the underlying trends revert to a more positive trajectory, we'd consider looking elsewhere.
If you want to continue researching SEM Holdings, you might be interested to know about the 1 warning sign that our analysis has discovered.
For those who like to invest in solid companies, check out this free list of companies with solid balance sheets and high returns on equity.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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