US$25.92: That's What Analysts Think Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:KPTI) Is Worth After Its Latest Results

Shareholders of Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:KPTI) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 10% to US$4.45 following its latest quarterly results. The statutory results were mixed overall, with revenues of US$38m in line with analyst forecasts, but losses of US$4.32 per share, some 7.2% larger than the analysts were predicting. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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After the latest results, the six analysts covering Karyopharm Therapeutics are now predicting revenues of US$148.3m in 2025. If met, this would reflect a decent 8.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 31% to US$9.83. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$147.1m and US$12.80 per share in losses. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed Karyopharm Therapeutics'future looks a little different to the past, with a considerable decrease in the loss per share forecasts in particular.

View our latest analysis for Karyopharm Therapeutics

Even with the lower forecast losses, the analysts lowered their valuations, with the average price target falling 11% to US$25.92. It looks likethe analysts have become less optimistic about the overall business. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Karyopharm Therapeutics analyst has a price target of US$67.50 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$8.00. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Karyopharm Therapeutics' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 17% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 3.7% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 19% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Karyopharm Therapeutics is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Karyopharm Therapeutics going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 5 warning signs for Karyopharm Therapeutics you should be aware of, and 2 of them are a bit concerning.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.