Generally speaking long term investing is the way to go. But unfortunately, some companies simply don't succeed. Zooming in on an example, the Heartland Express, Inc. (NASDAQ:HTLD) share price dropped 60% in the last half decade. We certainly feel for shareholders who bought near the top. We also note that the stock has performed poorly over the last year, with the share price down 33%. But it's up 8.5% in the last week.
The recent uptick of 8.5% could be a positive sign of things to come, so let's take a look at historical fundamentals.
Heartland Express isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally hope to see good revenue growth. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.
In the last half decade, Heartland Express saw its revenue increase by 14% per year. That's a fairly respectable growth rate. The share price, meanwhile, has fallen 10% compounded, over five years. That suggests the market is disappointed with the current growth rate. A pessimistic market can create opportunities.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. You can see what analysts are predicting for Heartland Express in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Heartland Express the TSR over the last 5 years was -57%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
Investors in Heartland Express had a tough year, with a total loss of 32% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 18%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 9% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. Investors who like to make money usually check up on insider purchases, such as the price paid, and total amount bought. You can find out about the insider purchases of Heartland Express by clicking this link.
Heartland Express is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of small cap companies at attractive valuations which insiders have been buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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