U.S. stock futures rose on Friday following Thursday’s declines. Futures of major benchmark indices were higher.
Investors are eyeing crucial comments on the labor market, inflation, and the trajectory of interest rates from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell‘s speech later today at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, which began on Thursday.
The theme for the 2025 symposium is “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy.”
The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.34% and the two-year bond was at 3.79%. The CME Group's FedWatch tool‘s projections show markets pricing a 71.3% likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting the current interest rates for the Sept. 17 decision.
Futures | Change (+/-) |
Dow Jones | 0.30% |
S&P 500 | 0.21% |
Nasdaq 100 | 0.12% |
Russell 2000 | 0.48% |
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, rose in premarket on Friday. The SPY was up 0.22% at $636.93, while the QQQ advanced 0.14% to $564.06, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Most sectors on the S&P 500 closed on a negative note, with consumer discretionary, utilities, and consumer staples stocks recording the biggest losses on Thursday. However, energy and materials stocks bucked the overall market trend, closing the session higher as U.S. stocks settled lower.
Shares of Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT) fell 4.5% on Thursday after the company reported mixed second-quarter results and raised its annual outlook. Shares of Coty Inc. (NYSE:COTY) also dipped around 22% following a fourth-quarter adjusted EPS miss.
Regarding economic data, U.S. initial jobless claims rose by 11,000 from the previous week to 235,000, compared to market estimates of 225,000.
U.S. existing home sales climbed by 2% from the previous month to an annualized rate of 4.01 million in July. The S&P Global services PMI fell to 55.4 in August, while the manufacturing PMI climbed to 53.3.
The Dow Jones index ended 153 points or 0.34% lower at 44,785.50, whereas the S&P 500 index fell 0.40% to 6,370.17. Nasdaq Composite declined 0.34% to 21,100.31, and the small-cap gauge, Russell 2000, gained 0.21% to end at 2,274.10.
Index | Performance (+/-) | Value |
Nasdaq Composite | -0.34% | 21,100.31 |
S&P 500 | -0.40% | 6,370.17 |
Dow Jones | -0.34% | 44,785.50 |
Russell 2000 | 0.21% | 2,274.10 |
A short speech from Federal Reserve Chair Powell at the upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Symposium could signal “forceful clarity” on the central bank’s commitment to its inflation mandate, while a longer speech may be more academic in nature, according to Jeffrey Roach, Chief Economist at LPL Financial.
This year’s address will be Powell’s last at the annual event, and Roach anticipates a longer speech in which the Fed chair will defend his legacy and discuss structural economic shifts, such as an aging population.
Roach will be watching for several key themes, including the independence of the Fed, which he believes Powell may emphasize in a subtle nod to President Donald Trump. Roach also expects the chair to highlight long-term economic challenges, like demographics and productivity, and to use the occasion to solidify his legacy rather than delivering a concise, pointed message.
According to a recent report from Wells Fargo, the Fed has historically used the Jackson Hole symposium to signal future policy changes, with action often taken at the subsequent September meeting.
Scott Wren, a Senior Global Market Strategist at Wells Fargo, noted that this was the case in 2024 when a 50-basis-point cut followed the symposium. The financial markets are currently pricing in an 83% chance of a rate cut at the September 16-17 meeting, a decrease from over 95% following the release of a weaker-than-expected July employment report.
Wells Fargo’s analysis suggests that the Fed will likely cut rates at one of the three remaining meetings this year and again in 2026. However, the firm believes that the four or five quarter-point cuts currently priced into the fed funds futures market through the end of next year are too high.
Wren anticipates “choppier markets ahead” as investors navigate rising inflation and slowing growth. In light of this, Wells Fargo recommends portfolio adjustments, such as rebalancing and reducing risk, rather than a complete shift out of equities or commodities. The firm maintains an overweight position on U.S. Large Cap Equities and a neutral allocation to commodities.
See Also: How to Trade Futures
Here's what investors will be keeping an eye on Friday;
Crude oil futures were trading lower in the early New York session by 0.06% to hover around $63.48 per barrel.
Gold Spot US Dollar fell 0.26% to hover around $3,329.75 per ounce. Its last record high stood at $3,500.33 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was 0.13% higher at the 98.7490 level.
Asian markets ended higher on Wednesday, except India’s S&P BSE Sensex and Australia's ASX 200 indices. Hong Kong's Hang Seng, Japan's Nikkei 225, South Korea's Kospi, and China’s CSI 300 indices rose. European markets were mostly higher in early trade.
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