Revenues Not Telling The Story For The Cato Corporation (NYSE:CATO) After Shares Rise 25%

The Cato Corporation (NYSE:CATO) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 25% gain in the last month alone. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 22% over that time.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Cato's P/S ratio of 0.1x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Specialty Retail industry in the United States is also close to 0.4x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

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View our latest analysis for Cato

How Cato Has Been Performing

For example, consider that Cato's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. One possibility is that the P/S is moderate because investors think the company might still do enough to be in line with the broader industry in the near future. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Cato's to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 7.3% decrease to the company's top line. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 15% in aggregate. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 5.8% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we find it concerning that Cato is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On Cato's P/S

Cato's stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our look at Cato revealed its shrinking revenues over the medium-term haven't impacted the P/S as much as we anticipated, given the industry is set to grow. Even though it matches the industry, we're uncomfortable with the current P/S ratio, as this dismal revenue performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

Plus, you should also learn about these 3 warning signs we've spotted with Cato (including 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.