Are Wall Street Analysts Bullish on Arthur J. Gallagher Stock?

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG), founded in 1927 and headquartered in Rolling Meadows, Illinois, is a global leader in insurance brokerage, risk management, and consulting.

With a market capitalization of $77 billion, the firm offers a full spectrum of services – including insurance and reinsurance placements, loss control, claims administration, and employee benefits – serving a diverse clientele across commercial, non-profit, public sector, and individual markets, blending expertise with global reach.

AJG stock has delivered a 6.1% year-to-date (YTD) return and rose 3.9% over the past 52 weeks, underperforming the broader S&P 500 Index’s ($SPX) gains of 9.9% on a YTD basis and 15.1% returns over the past year.

Narrowing the focus to the broader insurance sector, AJG edged past the SPDR S&P Insurance ETF’s (KIE) 5% YTD return, but is trailing the ETF’s 7.2% gains over the past year.

In 2025, AJG stock’s trajectory closely mirrored its quarterly results. On July 31, the company released its Q2 earnings, showcasing solid top-line momentum with 16% year-over-year revenue growth and 5.4% organic gains, supported by strong adjusted EBITDAC margins and strategic progress from acquisitions and tech investments. 

Yet investor enthusiasm was tempered as Q2 adjusted EPS came in at $2.33, slightly below expectations, highlighting modest earnings and revenue misses despite the company’s growth initiatives.

For the current fiscal year, ending in December 2025, analysts expect Arthur J. Gallagher to report EPS growth of 8.8% YoY to $10.98, on a diluted basis. The company has a mixed earnings surprise history overall. While it surpassed or matched the Street’s bottom-line projections in three of the four quarters, it missed the estimates in one other occasion.

Among the 21 analysts covering AJG stock, the consensus rating is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on 10 “Strong Buys,” 10 “Holds,” and one “Strong Sell” rating.

The configuration has stayed mostly steady in recent months, but sentiment is tilting bullish. “Strong Buy” ratings have edged up slightly, rising from nine to 10 over the past month, reflecting growing analyst confidence. 

Last week, Citi analyst Matthew Heimermann raised AJG’s price target to $330 from $317, maintaining a “Neutral” rating. The adjustment factors in the recent completion of AJG’s Assured Partners acquisition, which prompted the analyst to raise its estimates.

The mean price target of $337.50 represents a premium of 11.9% to AJG’s current price. The Street-high price target of $388 suggests an upside potential of 28.6%.