Will Viasat's (VSAT) Next Satellite Launch Reshape Its Competitive Edge in Connectivity Markets?

• Viasat announced that its advanced ViaSat-3 F2 satellite, designed to dramatically increase bandwidth capacity and enable flexible coverage, is scheduled to launch in the second half of October 2025 atop a ULA Atlas V551 rocket from Cape Canaveral, Florida.
• This marks a critical step in expanding Viasat’s global, multi-orbit network at a time when rising demand from aviation, maritime, and defense customers is supporting significant new contract wins and operational growth across the company’s key business segments.
• To understand the implications, we'll examine how the planned ViaSat-3 F2 launch could impact Viasat's investment narrative and growth prospects.

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Viasat Investment Narrative Recap

To be a Viasat shareholder today, you need conviction in the future of multi-orbit satellite networks, especially as the company invests heavily to meet surging mobility and defense demands. The scheduled ViaSat-3 F2 launch is a meaningful milestone, expected to boost total capacity, but until it is operational and contributing revenue, significant capital outlays continue to weigh on free cash flow, making leverage and execution on large projects the most important short-term catalysts, and risks, to monitor. This launch addresses scale and flexibility, but does not immediately resolve the core financial pressures facing the company.

Among recent announcements, the $252 million contract with Geoscience Australia and LINZ stands out as it reflects Viasat’s expanding global reach and customer relevance, particularly in government and commercial connectivity for underserved regions. This development, coupled with the enhanced bandwidth expected from ViaSat-3 F2, illustrates clear progress toward unlocking new revenue streams, the very catalyst at the center of Viasat’s near-term growth story.

However, investors should not lose sight of the mounting capital expenditure and leverage costs, particularly if...

Read the full narrative on Viasat (it's free!)

Viasat's outlook anticipates $5.0 billion in revenue and $534.2 million in earnings by 2028. This scenario assumes 2.9% annual revenue growth and a $1,132.7 million increase in earnings from the current $-598.5 million.

Uncover how Viasat's forecasts yield a $24.29 fair value, a 18% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for Viasat range from as low as US$8.40 up to US$112.88, spanning 6 perspectives. While investor optimism about new satellite capacity is building, substantial capital needs and operational execution remain central to future company performance.

Explore 6 other fair value estimates on Viasat - why the stock might be worth over 3x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Viasat Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Viasat research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Viasat research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Viasat's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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