Risks Still Elevated At These Prices As Sheng Yuan Holdings Limited (HKG:851) Shares Dive 29%

The Sheng Yuan Holdings Limited (HKG:851) share price has softened a substantial 29% over the previous 30 days, handing back much of the gains the stock has made lately. Looking back over the past twelve months the stock has been a solid performer regardless, with a gain of 19%.

Even after such a large drop in price, Sheng Yuan Holdings' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 29.7x might still make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 12x and even P/E's below 7x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

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As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at Sheng Yuan Holdings over the last year, which is not ideal at all. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

See our latest analysis for Sheng Yuan Holdings

Is There Enough Growth For Sheng Yuan Holdings?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as Sheng Yuan Holdings' is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 62% decrease to the company's bottom line. As a result, earnings from three years ago have also fallen 60% overall. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 20% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term earnings results is a sobering picture.

With this information, we find it concerning that Sheng Yuan Holdings is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

Sheng Yuan Holdings' shares may have retreated, but its P/E is still flying high. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of Sheng Yuan Holdings revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Plus, you should also learn about these 4 warning signs we've spotted with Sheng Yuan Holdings.

If you're unsure about the strength of Sheng Yuan Holdings' business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.