KPM Holding Limited's (HKG:8027) 43% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Revenues

The KPM Holding Limited (HKG:8027) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 43%. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 20% over that time.

Even after such a large jump in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about KPM Holding's P/S ratio of 0.3x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Commercial Services industry in Hong Kong is also close to 0.5x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

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See our latest analysis for KPM Holding

How KPM Holding Has Been Performing

Recent times have been quite advantageous for KPM Holding as its revenue has been rising very briskly. Perhaps the market is expecting future revenue performance to taper off, which has kept the P/S from rising. If that doesn't eventuate, then existing shareholders have reason to be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

Is There Some Revenue Growth Forecasted For KPM Holding?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like KPM Holding's is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew revenue by an impressive 46% last year. Still, revenue has fallen 18% in total from three years ago, which is quite disappointing. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 7.1% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that KPM Holding's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

Its shares have lifted substantially and now KPM Holding's P/S is back within range of the industry median. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

We find it unexpected that KPM Holding trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 2 warning signs for KPM Holding that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.