Is Dollar Tree Stock Outperforming the Nasdaq?

With a market cap of $19.8 billion, Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) operates discount variety stores across the United States and Canada under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands. The company offers a wide range of consumables, variety of merchandise, and seasonal goods, catering to everyday needs as well as holidays and special occasions. 

Companies worth more than $10 billion are generally labeled as “large-cap” stocks and Dollar Tree fits this criterion perfectly. Supported by a nationwide logistics network and its e-commerce platform, DollarTree.com, the retailer serves individuals, small businesses, and organizations with affordable products and bulk purchasing options.

Despite this, shares of the Chesapeake, Virginia-based company have declined 18.8% from its 52-week high of $118.06. DLTR stock has decreased 3.2% over the past three months, underperforming the Nasdaq Composite’s ($NASX) 13.4% increase over the same time frame. 

In the longer term, DLTR stock is up 27.9% on a YTD basis, outperforming NASX’s 15.7% gain. Moreover, shares of the company have soared 33.3% over the past 52 weeks, compared to NASX’s over 27% return over the same time frame. 

The stock has been trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages since April. However, it has fallen below its 50-day moving average since September.

Despite reporting stronger-than-expected Q2 2025 adjusted EPS of $0.77 and sales of $4.57 billion, shares of Dollar Tree tumbled 8.4% on Sept. 3. Investor sentiment soured as management forecasted weak Q3 earnings, guiding adjusted EPS to be roughly in line with last year’s $0.57, far below analyst expectations. Additionally, concerns about rising costs from U.S. tariffs, elevated SG&A expenses, and operating margin contraction of 20 bps to 5.2% weighed on the stock.

Nevertheless, rival Target Corporation (TGT) has lagged behind DLTR stock. TGT stock has declined 34.2% on a YTD basis and 41.8% over the past 52 weeks.

Despite the stock’s outperformance, analysts remain cautiously optimistic on DLTR. The stock has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” from the 24 analysts in coverage, and the mean price target of $112 is a premium of 17% to current levels.