Winson Holdings Hong Kong Limited's (HKG:6812) 26% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

The Winson Holdings Hong Kong Limited (HKG:6812) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 26%. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 19% in the last twelve months.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Winson Holdings Hong Kong's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.2x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Commercial Services industry in Hong Kong, where the median P/S ratio is around 0.5x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

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Check out our latest analysis for Winson Holdings Hong Kong

What Does Winson Holdings Hong Kong's Recent Performance Look Like?

We'd have to say that with no tangible growth over the last year, Winson Holdings Hong Kong's revenue has been unimpressive. One possibility is that the P/S is moderate because investors think this benign revenue growth rate might not be enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be feeling hopeful about the future direction of the share price.

How Is Winson Holdings Hong Kong's Revenue Growth Trending?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like Winson Holdings Hong Kong's is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.

If we review the last year of revenue, the company posted a result that saw barely any deviation from a year ago. The longer-term trend has been no better as the company has no revenue growth to show for over the last three years either. So it seems apparent to us that the company has struggled to grow revenue meaningfully over that time.

This is in contrast to the rest of the industry, which is expected to grow by 7.3% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

In light of this, it's curious that Winson Holdings Hong Kong's P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. They may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Bottom Line On Winson Holdings Hong Kong's P/S

Its shares have lifted substantially and now Winson Holdings Hong Kong's P/S is back within range of the industry median. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

Our examination of Winson Holdings Hong Kong revealed its poor three-year revenue trends aren't resulting in a lower P/S as per our expectations, given they look worse than current industry outlook. When we see weak revenue with slower than industry growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, bringing the P/S back in line with expectations. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, it's hard to accept the current share price as fair value.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Winson Holdings Hong Kong you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit unpleasant.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.