Will Managing North Florida Facility Reshape GEO Group's (GEO) Growth Story?

• On October 2, 2025, The Geo Group announced it had entered into a joint venture to manage the 1,310-bed North Florida Detention Facility in Baker County under contract with the state of Florida, with GEO as the lead manager.
• This agreement significantly increases GEO's managed capacity in the southeastern United States and highlights its ongoing expansion in state-contracted detention services.
• We’ll look at how the addition of this Florida facility could influence GEO Group’s growth outlook and overall investment case.

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GEO Group Investment Narrative Recap

Being a shareholder in GEO Group requires confidence in sustained demand for private detention services, with growth closely tied to federal and state contracts. While the recent North Florida joint venture adds capacity and strengthens GEO’s presence in the southeast, its impact on the company’s most important short-term catalyst, large-scale federal detention and ICE contract wins, may not be immediately material. The main risk continues to be policy shifts or funding changes that could sharply affect facility utilization rates and revenue.

Among GEO’s recent developments, the September 2025 award of three contracts from the Florida Department of Corrections stands out as especially relevant. Combined with the North Florida facility, this reinforces GEO’s progress in growing state-level business, which could help offset potential volatility in federal policy and appropriations that remain key drivers for near-term results.

However, investors should be aware that in contrast to GEO's recent growth in state contracts, underlying legislative and political risks remain significant if...

Read the full narrative on GEO Group (it's free!)

GEO Group's outlook forecasts $3.8 billion in revenue and $571.5 million in earnings by 2028. This implies a 15.4% annual revenue growth rate and a $483.1 million increase in earnings from current earnings of $88.4 million.

Uncover how GEO Group's forecasts yield a $39.00 fair value, a 129% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Five members of the Simply Wall St Community estimated GEO’s fair value between US$8.60 and US$104.01. With federal detention funding still driving the main catalysts, you’ll find a wide range of opinions and reasons to explore.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on GEO Group - why the stock might be worth 49% less than the current price!

Build Your Own GEO Group Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your GEO Group research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free GEO Group research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate GEO Group's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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