Dollar Tree's Q3 2025 Earnings: What to Expect

With a market cap of $20.9 billion, Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) is a leading value retailer with over 9,000 stores across the U.S. and Canada, committed to offering customers great value at low prices. Known for its “thrill-of-the-hunt” shopping experience, Dollar Tree provides an ever-changing assortment of quality products, from everyday essentials to seasonal favorites, all at incredible prices.

The Chesapeake, Virginia-based company is expected to announce its fiscal Q3 2025 results soon. Ahead of this event, analysts expect the company to report an adjusted EPS of $1.08, down 3.6% from $1.12 in the year-ago quarter. It has surpassed Wall Street's earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing on another occasion. 

For fiscal 2025, analysts expect the discount store chain to report an adjusted EPS of $5.60, up 9.8% from $5.10 in fiscal 2024. In addition, adjusted EPS is anticipated to grow 15.9% year-over-year to $6.49 in fiscal 2026. 

Shares of DLTR have climbed 54.4% over the past 52 weeks, exceeding both the S&P 500 Index's ($SPX) 18.4% gain and the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund’s (XLP) 2.3% decline over the same period. 

Despite reporting stronger-than-expected Q2 2025 adjusted EPS of $0.77 and sales of $4.57 billion, shares of Dollar Tree tumbled 8.4% on Sept. 3. Investor sentiment soured as management forecasted weak Q3 earnings, guiding adjusted EPS to be roughly in line with last year’s $0.57, far below analyst expectations. Additionally, concerns about rising costs from U.S. tariffs, elevated SG&A expenses, and operating margin contraction of 20 bps to 5.2% weighed on the stock.

Analysts' consensus view on DLTR stock is cautiously optimistic, with an overall "Moderate Buy" rating. Among 25 analysts covering the stock, nine recommend "Strong Buy," 14 suggest "Hold," and two give "Moderate Sell." The average analyst price target for Dollar Tree is $107.43, indicating a potential upside of 4.7% from the current levels.