Sunrun (RUN): Assessing Valuation Following a 13% Share Price Surge

Sunrun (RUN) has seen its stock gain traction recently, climbing nearly 13% over the past month. Investors are now turning their focus toward what is driving this upswing and what it might signal for the months ahead.

See our latest analysis for Sunrun.

Momentum has clearly built for Sunrun, with a strong 13.5% 1-month share price return following a stunning 99% gain over the last 90 days. This run-up highlights renewed optimism around the company’s growth outlook, even as long-term total shareholder returns remain deeply negative over a five-year period.

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But with shares hovering just below analyst price targets after a sharp rally, the key question is whether Sunrun remains a value play or if the upside from future growth has already been fully priced in.

Most Popular Narrative: Fairly Valued

With Sunrun's fair value estimate now at $19.39, which is just above the last close price of $19.62, there is close alignment between widely followed narrative forecasts and current market pricing. The narrative offers a detailed look at both Sunrun's potential and the drivers that underpin the valuation.

Sunrun is rapidly scaling its storage and grid services offerings, enrolling a growing portion of its customer base (currently approximately 35% of 200,000 batteries, aiming for 10 GWh of dispatchable energy by 2029). This enables significant recurring revenue growth and expanded margin opportunities as demand for grid support rises, supporting long-term revenue and net margin improvements.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know what powers this narrative? There is a bold forecast for revenue acceleration and a margin swing that could surprise even seasoned market watchers. The journey to this fair value is packed with provocative projections you will want to see for yourself.

Result: Fair Value of $19.39 (ABOUT RIGHT)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, potential changes to tax credits and tighter access to capital could quickly challenge even the strongest growth forecasts for Sunrun.

Find out about the key risks to this Sunrun narrative.

Build Your Own Sunrun Narrative

If you want a different perspective or have your own insights to share, now’s the time to dig into the data and craft your own view. You can build a personalized narrative in just minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Sunrun research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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