October ended in the green with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hovering around all-time highs, but if history is any guide, November used to deliver even better returns—as it's been the most consistently bullish month for U.S. stocks.
While no single factor fully explains the November seasonality, the combination of earnings reports, holiday optimism and institutional portfolio adjustments often contribute to seasonal tailwinds for Wall Street.
Looking at 30 years of data, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) has climbed an average of 2.85% in November, finishing the month higher 83% of the time.
The biggest November win came in 2020, when Pfizer's vaccine news sent markets flying and the S&P surged 10.1%. On the flip side, the weakest was 2008—amid the financial crisis—with a loss of 6.96%.
The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ)—which tracks the Nasdaq 100—averaged gains of 2.77% in November since 1995.
It boasts a 77% win rate, higher than any other month, making November the second-best month after October for tech stocks. Its most explosive November came in 2001 with a 16.96% jump. The worst was again in 2008, down 11.46%.
Blue chips in the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA) follow a similar rhythm. Since 1995, the Dow's November performance averaged a 2.8% gain with a 78% win rate, outperforming all other months. The Dow leapt 11.9% in November 2020 but lost 5.6% during the 2008 crash.
Remarkably, all three indexes have ended November higher in 12 of the past 13 years.
| Index | Avg. November Return | Win Rate | Best November | Worst November |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +2.85% | 83% | +10.1% (2020) | -6.96% (2008) |
| Nasdaq 100 | +2.77% | 77% | +16.96% (2001) | -11.46% (2008) |
| Dow Jones | +2.8% | 78% | +11.9% (2020) | -5.6% (2008) |
Beyond the indexes, some individual stocks have consistently delivered in November, posting strong average gains and a high frequency of monthly advances.
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