Earnings Update: Malibu Boats, Inc. (NASDAQ:MBUU) Just Reported Its First-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts

There's been a notable change in appetite for Malibu Boats, Inc. (NASDAQ:MBUU) shares in the week since its quarterly report, with the stock down 19% to US$27.87. The results don't look great, especially considering that statutory losses grew 25% toUS$0.04 per share. Revenues of US$195m did beat expectations by 6.9%, but it looks like a bit of a cold comfort. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the eight analysts covering Malibu Boats, is for revenues of US$786.1m in 2026. This implies a discernible 5.4% reduction in Malibu Boats' revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to reduce 2.7% to US$0.97 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$785.7m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.94 in 2026. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Malibu Boats' earnings potential following these results.

See our latest analysis for Malibu Boats

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$36.07, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Malibu Boats, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$46.50 and the most bearish at US$30.00 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. One more thing stood out to us about these estimates, and it's the idea that Malibu Boats' decline is expected to accelerate, with revenues forecast to fall at an annualised rate of 7.1% to the end of 2026. This tops off a historical decline of 0.8% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.7% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Malibu Boats to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Malibu Boats following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$36.07, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Malibu Boats analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Malibu Boats that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.