Wan Leader International Limited's (HKG:8482) 26% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Revenues

Wan Leader International Limited (HKG:8482) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 26% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 28% in the last twelve months.

Even after such a large jump in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Wan Leader International's P/S ratio of 0.2x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Logistics industry in Hong Kong is about the same. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

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See our latest analysis for Wan Leader International

What Does Wan Leader International's Recent Performance Look Like?

For example, consider that Wan Leader International's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. One possibility is that the P/S is moderate because investors think the company might still do enough to be in line with the broader industry in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like Wan Leader International's is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 16%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 77% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 15% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Wan Leader International's P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

What Does Wan Leader International's P/S Mean For Investors?

Its shares have lifted substantially and now Wan Leader International's P/S is back within range of the industry median. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our look at Wan Leader International revealed its shrinking revenues over the medium-term haven't impacted the P/S as much as we anticipated, given the industry is set to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

You need to take note of risks, for example - Wan Leader International has 4 warning signs (and 3 which are potentially serious) we think you should know about.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.