Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (HKG:981) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.6% to HK$73.50 in the week after its latest quarterly results. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of US$2.4b were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 14% to hit US$0.02 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Semiconductor Manufacturing International's 26 analysts is for revenues of US$10.9b in 2026. This would reflect a sizeable 21% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 62% to US$0.13. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$10.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.13 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Semiconductor Manufacturing International

The consensus price target rose 11% to HK$66.35despite there being no meaningful change to earnings estimates. It could be that the analystsare reflecting the predictability of Semiconductor Manufacturing International's earnings by assigning a price premium. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Semiconductor Manufacturing International at HK$134 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$25.01. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 16% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 14% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 15% annually. So although Semiconductor Manufacturing International is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's only growing at about the rate of the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Semiconductor Manufacturing International going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Semiconductor Manufacturing International has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.