What Lai Group Holding Company Limited's (HKG:8455) 54% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

Lai Group Holding Company Limited (HKG:8455) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 54% share price jump in the last month. The last month tops off a massive increase of 267% in the last year.

Even after such a large jump in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Lai Group Holding's P/S ratio of 0.7x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Consumer Services industry in Hong Kong is also close to 1.2x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

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View our latest analysis for Lai Group Holding

How Lai Group Holding Has Been Performing

The recent revenue growth at Lai Group Holding would have to be considered satisfactory if not spectacular. Perhaps the expectation moving forward is that the revenue growth will track in line with the wider industry for the near term, which has kept the P/S subdued. Those who are bullish on Lai Group Holding will be hoping that this isn't the case, so that they can pick up the stock at a lower valuation.

Is There Some Revenue Growth Forecasted For Lai Group Holding?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Lai Group Holding would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 4.0% gain to the company's revenues. Still, lamentably revenue has fallen 12% in aggregate from three years ago, which is disappointing. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 13% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we find it concerning that Lai Group Holding is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

What We Can Learn From Lai Group Holding's P/S?

Lai Group Holding appears to be back in favour with a solid price jump bringing its P/S back in line with other companies in the industry Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

The fact that Lai Group Holding currently trades at a P/S on par with the rest of the industry is surprising to us since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term, all while the industry is set to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider and we've discovered 4 warning signs for Lai Group Holding (2 are a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.