Xiaomi (SEHK:1810) Valuation Check After Share Buyback And Fresh Large Cap Growth Endorsement

Investor focus has sharpened on Xiaomi (SEHK:1810) after the company repurchased 3.9 million Type B shares on January 6, 2026, together with fresh attention from a major global investment bank.

See our latest analysis for Xiaomi.

The recent buyback comes after a tough few months for the share price, with a 90 day share price return of a 27.34% decline and a 30 day share price return of a 9.48% decline. However, the 3 year total shareholder return of 216.22% and 1 year total shareholder return of 12.73% suggest longer term momentum has been stronger than the latest pullback.

If Xiaomi's recent volatility has you thinking about where else growth stories might emerge, this could be a good moment to scan high growth tech and AI names through high growth tech and AI stocks.

With Xiaomi buying back shares and trading at what looks like a discount to some valuation estimates, the key question for you is simple: is this genuine value on offer, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 34.6% Undervalued

Compared with Xiaomi's last close at HK$37.82, the most followed narrative fair value of HK$57.80 points to a meaningful valuation gap that hinges on long term ecosystem and premium product expansion.

The company's successful push into premiumization, evidenced by growing sales of high-end smartphones, appliances, and electric vehicles, along with the launch of proprietary 3nm chips and advanced AI features, supports higher average selling prices and improves net margins as Xiaomi captures greater value per customer.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of revenue ramp, margin profile, and earnings power need to line up to justify that higher fair value and premium P/E? The narrative leans heavily on sustained ecosystem growth, firmer profitability, and a future earnings multiple above the wider Hong Kong tech sector. Want to see exactly how those ingredients are combined into that HK$57.80 figure using an 8.52% discount rate?

Result: Fair Value of $57.80 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, slowing AIoT growth as subsidies roll off, along with intense price competition in smartphones and EVs, could pressure margins and challenge the higher earnings and P/E assumptions.

Find out about the key risks to this Xiaomi narrative.

Build Your Own Xiaomi Narrative

If you are not on board with this view or prefer to stress test the assumptions yourself, you can build a custom Xiaomi story in under three minutes, starting with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Xiaomi research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Xiaomi is on your radar, do not stop there. Your next strong idea might be sitting in plain sight among other stocks that fit your style.

• Target higher income by scanning these 12 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that focus on steady cash returns alongside share price moves.
• Ride structural growth trends by checking out these 28 AI penny stocks that tie into expanding demand for artificial intelligence.
• Hunt for potential mispriced opportunities by filtering for these 879 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that align with your own view on fair value.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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